Selfish Hedonist

Here you go, based on the polls I've been obsessively tracking for the past few weeks. My prediction for tomorrow.

(Sorry, I can't figure out how to embed this!)

The bottom line is that it's just really hard for me to see McCain winning in Pennsylvania, Colorado, Iowa, or New Mexico. So forget the toss-ups - the election *should* be a done deal. The toss-ups will determine the extent of the victory.

Of the 10 toss-up states, I'm decently confident of an Obama victory in two: Nevada and Virginia. But both will be tight. But I just don't see them mattering. And finally, I find it hard to believe that with leads in OH, FL, and NC, that Obama won't win *one* of those states.

But I'm still nervous! GO VOTE, PEOPLE, IF YOU HAVEN'T ALREADY!!

So ALL of you, stand up!

It's Friday morning, and good news just about across the board, polling-wise. Today is the last day of October, and Halloween, and a Friday - in other words, probably the WORST POSSIBLE SET OF CIRCUMSTANCES for an "October Surprise."

Not to mention the fact that a whole slew of people have already voted in the key swing states of Colorado, New Mexico, Florida and North Carolina, among others. If you've got something truly nasty to throw at your opponent, it seems foolish to do so at the last minute in this day of early voting.

Four days from now will be pretty great, I'm thinking, but there's still lots of work to do. The Democrats will have have achieved political power across the map, but the canard remains true - with great power does come great responsibility. Ethics and values must continue to drive our politics. A healthy respect for the (happily disgraced) opposition and the (sadly disgraced) Fourth Estate must pervade. What Obama has talked about - how no party holds a monopoly on good ideas - it's true.

And the Constitution must be restored to its place of honor in our nation. In particular, the Bill of Rights must be honored. Liberals and Democrats can not ignore the principles of the First Amendment when it suits them, in our quest for vengeance. The Second Amendment, too, is not to be run roughshod over (although I'm still waiting for someone to explain to me whether "arms" includes nuclear arms and, if not, why not). And then there's the torture stuff.

It may seem like I'm putting the cart before the horse, but really, those rules should apply even if the unthinkable happens and McCain pulls this out. Which he won't.

Because even Joe the Plumber stood him up yesterday.

Obama (for whom I voted a few days ago - WOO!) is, as of today, in the lead in every national poll - although by remarkably divergent amounts.

He also is far enough in the lead in various state polls that Real Clear Politics considers him "safe" in states that would give him 259 electoral votes - and "leaning" in another 3 states equaling 27 electoral votes. So before you even look at the "toss-up" states (an additional 6 states with 89 electoral votes), he's up by enough to win the election. And he's leading in 5 of those 6 toss-up states!

So when I saw this excellent video today from Ohio, I got a bit concerned. Was it really true, what they said in their admonition for us not to get complacent (and to give money), that Kerry was up in the polls in 2004?

Well, not really. I mean, yes, he did lead at some point. But as Oliver Willis points out, once the GOP convention happened, Bush never *really* looked back. Yes, the race *did* tighten once October rolled around, and Kerry was ahead in a few polls (and it was a two-point game at the end), the Democrat was always playing catch up.

Check it out:

• In all October polls prior to the final polls from each pollster, Bush led in 25, Kerry led in 3, and 8 were ties.
• In the final polls, Bush led in 10, Kerry led in 2 and 2 were ties.
• Bush's biggest October lead in any poll was +8. Kerry's biggest lead in any October poll was +2.
• Bush's final margin of victory was very, very close to what the combined polls said they'd be.
  

Now look at this month's polls:

• Of all October polls, Obama has led in 34, McCain has led in 0, and 0 have been ties.
• Obama's biggest October lead in any poll is +14. His smallest lead is +1.

But here's the main point of this post - as 2000 reminds us, the national popular vote means ZERO when deciding who's gonna be the head banana. It's the states that count.

And looking at RCP's state tallies from 2004, some remarkable data comes to light.

In 2004, RCP identified 17 states as "battleground" states. (I'm leaving out Hawaii, which was never really in doubt.) With the exception of Wisconsin, the winner in each state matched the projected winner according to the polls! And Wisconsin, of course, ended up breaking for the Democrat.

Not only that, but state by state, the election results tracked very closely to the polls. In Ohio, they got the margin of 2.1% exactly right. In 9 other states, they got it right to within 1%. And in two others, they were within 2%. The states pollsters were "right" in included OH, PA, WI, IA, MN, MI, NH, ME, and NJ - aka "Northern" states - plus OR, NM and CO (good ol' Western states).

Now, what states did the pollsters get wrong (i.e. 3% or worse difference)? Florida, Missouri, West Virginia, and Arkansas - all of which broke hard for Bush - plus Nevada (a Western state), which went from a 6.3% Bush poll victory to a 2.6% Bush electoral victory. And still *none* of the states broke more than 5% from the polls.

What this suggests to me is that Bush's vaunted "ground game" in 2004 was really only effective in the South - aka his base.

Assuming polls stay more or less stable, and are anywhere close to as accurate as they were in 2004, Obama wins this election comfortably. Even if there's a significant shift of 5% nationally towards McCain in the final two weeks, Obama'll win this. And what if there's a significant shift of 5% nationally - in every state - AND an additional 3% movement in EVERY "battleground" state toward McCain (thanks to a church-based stealth ground game, a la 2004)? This would give McCain FL, OH, MO, NV, CO, IN, and NC. Well, then it would be Obama 264, McCain 261, and a virtual tie in Virginia. And I gotta say, given Warner at the top of the ticket, Webb helping out in his way, and improving demographics for the Dems over the past decade, I like those chances! Oh, plus Nancy Pfotenhauer's "real Virginia" gaffe:

Labels: 2004, Pfotenhauer, polling

Iowa, New Mexico, Colorado

You know what, I'm thrilled that John McCain is spending his time and money in North Carolina, Virginia, and Florida. That West Virginia, North Dakota, and Georgia are making unexpected appearances on the scene. That the U.S. Supreme Court just overturned the attempt to undermine Ohio's vote, and that the excitement levels in Indiana are as high as they are.

But to me, this election comes down to three states: Iowa, New Mexico, and Colorado.

Because if Barack Obama can win the Kerry States (HI, CA, WA, OR, MN, WI, IL, MI, PA, MD, DE, NJ, NY, CT, RI, MA, VT, NH and ME) - plus those three, then the election is in the bag. Obama can with this election without Florida OR Ohio OR Virginia OR Nevada.

The 21 electoral votes in those three states would put him over the top. (Note: If somehow McCain is able to sneak New Hampshire into his column, then it would be a 269-269 tie and boy oh boy would some craziness go down!) And I've got some good news:

In Iowa, Obama is *rocking* - with leads between 8%-13%, not going below 50% while McCain is just hovering over 40%. This state is considered 100% safe based on fivethirtyeight.com's model based on current polling.

In New Mexico, McCain has yet to poll above 45%, while Obama is consistently above 50%. 538 gives him the state 91% of the time, based on their model.

And in Colorado, pretty much the same story, with a couple more positive results for McCain but never EVER one showing McCain at 50% (and 10 polls since the convention showing Obama at 50% or above). 538 has Colorado at 90% for Obama.

So using my rusty math skills, based on current polls, Obama has an 81.9% chance of winning this election (1.00 x .90 x .91) - even if he loses Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Nevada, North Carolina and Missouri - if he wins the Kerry states. And assuming he wins the Kerry states and Iowa, then he just needs *either* CO/NM or MO or OH or VA or FL or NC (or GA or NV+NM or IN). And he's polling even or ahead in each of those states.

We still have 2+ weeks to go. And who knows what the heck is going to happen in that time. But even as national tracking polls tighten - or not - the big three are looking very, very good. As much as I'd like a landslide, how great would it be for the Centennial state to be the one that puts Obama into the White House, and then the convention would be pointed to for years to come as a brilliant move!

Alan Keyes is running for president.

And the father of a Columbine victim is his VP nominee.

Is Keyes going for a record of most number of times losing to Barack Obama? Best of luck to him!

Oh man, this is going to be the longest 27 days in the long, long history of the world.

Here's some TV news bloopers to keep us distracted:



HAW HAW HAW! LOLZERZZ at the last one!!!!