Friday, October 17, 2008


the big three

Iowa, New Mexico, Colorado

You know what, I'm thrilled that John McCain is spending his time and money in North Carolina, Virginia, and Florida. That West Virginia, North Dakota, and Georgia are making unexpected appearances on the scene. That the U.S. Supreme Court just overturned the attempt to undermine Ohio's vote, and that the excitement levels in Indiana are as high as they are.

But to me, this election comes down to three states: Iowa, New Mexico, and Colorado.

Because if Barack Obama can win the Kerry States (HI, CA, WA, OR, MN, WI, IL, MI, PA, MD, DE, NJ, NY, CT, RI, MA, VT, NH and ME) - plus those three, then the election is in the bag. Obama can with this election without Florida OR Ohio OR Virginia OR Nevada.

The 21 electoral votes in those three states would put him over the top. (Note: If somehow McCain is able to sneak New Hampshire into his column, then it would be a 269-269 tie and boy oh boy would some craziness go down!) And I've got some good news:

In Iowa, Obama is *rocking* - with leads between 8%-13%, not going below 50% while McCain is just hovering over 40%. This state is considered 100% safe based on's model based on current polling.

In New Mexico, McCain has yet to poll above 45%, while Obama is consistently above 50%. 538 gives him the state 91% of the time, based on their model.

And in Colorado, pretty much the same story, with a couple more positive results for McCain but never EVER one showing McCain at 50% (and 10 polls since the convention showing Obama at 50% or above). 538 has Colorado at 90% for Obama.

So using my rusty math skills, based on current polls, Obama has an 81.9% chance of winning this election (1.00 x .90 x .91) - even if he loses Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Nevada, North Carolina and Missouri - if he wins the Kerry states. And assuming he wins the Kerry states and Iowa, then he just needs *either* CO/NM or MO or OH or VA or FL or NC (or GA or NV+NM or IN). And he's polling even or ahead in each of those states.

We still have 2+ weeks to go. And who knows what the heck is going to happen in that time. But even as national tracking polls tighten - or not - the big three are looking very, very good. As much as I'd like a landslide, how great would it be for the Centennial state to be the one that puts Obama into the White House, and then the convention would be pointed to for years to come as a brilliant move!

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